Well, time to re-write some things…
The huge domino we expected to see fall — Aaron Rodgers to the Denver Broncos — failed to materialize. The veteran quarterback will reportedly sign a market-altering contract extension with the Green Bay Packers and return to the NFC North.
While it was easy to connect the dots between the Broncos and Rodgers, perhaps it takes more than dot-connecting to get a trade done in the NFL.
After all, the Broncos did make a trade, just not for Rodgers. Instead, Denver is trading for Russell Wilson:
Trade package:
Seattle gets QB Drew Lock, TE Noah Fant, DL Shelby Harris, two first-round picks, two second-round picks and a fifth-round pick.
Denver gets Russell Wilson and a fourth-round pick.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 8, 2022
So how might that shake up the 2022 NFL draft? Let’s try and figure that out, together, like friends.
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No change at the top of the board. With Doug Pederson heading to Jacksonville to be the Jaguars’ next head coach, we can start to surmise what their plans might be for the draft. Regardless of head coach, building around — and protecting — Trevor Lawrence should be atop the to-do list. When Pederson won Super Bowl LII with the Philadelphia Eagles, that roster had a fantastic offensive line in front of Carson Wentz and Nick Foles. So look to the Jaguars to try and build in front of Lawrence, kicking off the draft with the Alabama tackle.
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A safety with the second-overall selection? One that tested poorly in Indianapolis to boot?
When we are talking about perhaps the best football player in the class, it makes sense. While the Detroit Lions have a need at quarterback, there is no need to force a player at that position this early, given this class. Kyle Hamilton is an elite talent that can play in a few different roles, whether as a pure free safety, down in the box, a half-field safety, or in man coverage against mismatch-type players.
Houston has a number of needs this off-season. One of which is their pass rush. As evaluators dive into Aidan Hutchinson, George Karlfatis, Jermaine Johnson and David Ojabo, Kayvon Thibodeaux seems to be sliding. Once viewed as a surefire top five selection, that seems in doubt. Thibodeaux did his best to change the narrative starting at the Combine with his bench press numbers, and I still believe that by the time the draft rolls around, he is going to be at the top of the board once more.
He checks many of the boxes teams are looking for in a top-flight edge rusher, and the Texans find a potential cornerstone piece to their defensive front.
The New York Jets added Carl Lawson to bolster their defensive front last season, but losing him to injury illuminated needs along the defensive line. They look to upgrade that unit by adding the Heisman Finalist, and pairing him with Lawson immediately improves the Jets’ pass rush.
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The New York Giants seem determined to build around Daniel Jones, and the hiring of Brian Daboll as their next head coach is another prong to their approach, given how he helped transform Josh Allen from raw quarterback prospect into secondary-destroying alien. One thing the Giants need to do to help Jones? Fix the offensive line. That stats with adding Ikem Ekwonu from N.C. State, a player that is OT1 on some boards right now.
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This is perhaps the first true decision point.
The Carolina Panthers have a huge need at quarterback. According to Peter Schrager of the NFL Network, owner David Tepper might swing for the fences this offseason at the position:
They have a gaping hole at one position – the quarterback spot. I look at Russell Wilson. I look at Aaron Rodgers. I look at Deshaun Watson. I look at Jimmy Garoppolo. I look at Kirk Cousins. I look at all these guys who might possibly be on the block to be acquired. Heck, I look at Tom Brady and if Tepper says to him here, Brady, we’ll make it work together. You can be a part of my hedge fund. I don’t know what you want just help bring me to the Lombardi. When you run a $15 billion company, you’re not sitting there to be mediocre. So, I think the Panthers are a team to watch at the quarterback position especially.
But now with Wilson and Rodgers off the market for Carolina, they have to go a different direction.
That leads us to the offensive line, another position they need to address. Charles Cross could end up as OT1 on some boards, and bolstering the offensive line with this selection — if it is not used to acquire a quarterback — is a move that makes sense.
Plus, they would need someone to protect Jimmy Garoppolo…
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After checking the necessary boxes in Indianapolis during the Combine, Ahmad Gardner has put himself firmly in Top-Ten territory. Those who have been following the mock drafts so far this season have seen him sent to New York before, but to the Jets with the tenth-overall selection. But his length and movement skills see him rise up the board, all the way to the Giants at seven overall.
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One might think that quarterback is in play with this selection from the Atlanta Falcons, and Malik Willis could be an ideal fit for Arthur Smith.
But, in the wake of the Calvin Ridley news, have you taken a look at their receiver depth chart at the moment?
This is an intriguing wide receiver class, but Drake London offers a solid NFL skill-set including the ability to win against press-coverage defenders on a variety of routes. Others might look at different options for WR1, but London gives the Falcons a solid option for their receiver room on Day One.
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Well here we go…
Everyone expected that the pick here might be made by the Green Bay Packers. It was not hard to connect the dots between Aaron Rodgers and the Denver Broncos, given their new head coach, and expectations were high that Rodgers might find his way to the AFC West.
So much so that this was in the drafts:
*Moves “Mock Draft Rodgers Trade Version” to the recycle bin
— Mark Schofield (@MarkSchofield) March 8, 2022
Instead, the pick is going to come from the Seattle Seahawks, given the news that Wilson is instead the quarterback on his way to the Mile High City. That gives Seattle the chance to look for their next quarterback, leading them to Malik Willis. Perhaps no other quarterback has helped themselves as much as Willis so far this draft cycle, from his work at the Senior Bowl to his performance in Indianapolis, and with the trade it seems like it is time for Seattle to start the rebuild, beginning with the new face at QB.
Now yes, Drew Lock was part of this deal, and adding Lock gives the Seahawks some breathing room with Willis. But at this point the Seahawks probably know what Lock is, and are more excited about what Willis could be.
With Sauce Gardner off the board, the Jets again look to the defensive side of the football and select Andrew Booth Jr. out of Clemson. Booth has good movement skills and is comfortable playing both in press alignments, and also in off coverage whether in zone or off-man. His ability to explode downhill and disrupt at the catch point, even starting from an off alignment, makes him a fit for what the New York Jets do on the defensive side of the football.
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Washington could be another team that tests the veteran quarterback market, but with Taylor Heinicke already in place as perhaps that option, the Commanders might decide that now is the time to dip back into the rookie quarterback market. Matt Corral might face some questions about transitioning to an NFL offense and leaving Lane Kiffin’s play calling behind, but he brings to the table some of the things that you cannot teach at the position, namely his ability to respond to multiple points of pressure in the pocket and make throws from a variety of different platforms under duress. With Heinicke in place Washington can give him a little breathing room to ease into an NFL system.
Plus, the growth that Corral showed the past two years, in cutting down the mistakes, will endear him to Ron Rivera and the Washington coaching staff. So too will his leadership qualities, which he put on display during his media session at the Combine.
Pass rusher could be in play here, with questions about Everson Griffen and Danielle Hunter on the outside of their defensive front. Another area of concern is in the secondary. Derek Stingley Jr.’s 2019 tape is perhaps the best out of any of the cornerbacks in this class, and if the Vikings are getting that player in the draft, they will be quite happy.
(AP Photo/Vasha Hunt)
Cleveland Browns fans have seen Odell Beckham Jr. leave town and win a Super Bowl, and are now preparing for life without Jarvis Landry. And while the organization just used the franchise tag on David Njoku, their talented tight end, they need to add a weapon on the outside.
Jameson Williams suffered a knee injury in the national championship game but his rehabilitation is progressing well, and brings game-changing speed and explosiveness to a Browns offense that is in dire need of creating explosive plays in the passing game.
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With Brandon Williams set to hit free agency, the Ravens might have a need at the heart of their defensive line. Jordan Davis is an imposing presence up front, with the power to anchor against double teams and the ability to get pressure on the inside. If Williams does depart, Davis slides in as a Day One starter for the Ravens.
Oh and did you see how he ran a 4.78 at the Combine while weighing in at 341? Insanity…
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Last week in Indianapolis, both Nick Sirianni and general manager Howie Roseman talked about the growth the Eagles have seen from Jalen Hurts, and how they look to continue that growth. They also talked about how the Eagles have a huge opportunity to improve on both side of the football, given their cap space and the three picks at their disposal in the first round.
They start that process on the defensive side of the football.
Jermaine Johnson has seen his stock rise since the Senior Bowl, and is a refined player off the edge who can also help against the run. He is an experienced player with a solid plan as a pass rusher, and steps in to shore up Philadelphia’s needs on the EDGE.
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Another area where the Eagles need to improve defensively is on the second level. Devin Lloyd is the kind of player that defenses need in the modern NFL on that level, with his coverage skills and ability to impact both the running game and the passing game. In coverage, Lloyd is at his best when in underneath zones, and in the Eagles’ defense he will be a three-down player given their system.
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Travon Walker is another of the Georgia players who had a huge week in Indianapolis, and his performance at the Combine has likely solidified his first-round status in the upcoming draft:
Travon Walker update. pic.twitter.com/HuXD6MPz8U
— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) March 6, 2022
Now imagine that athleticism across from Joey Bosa.
NFL teams love when they can get pressure with four and play with the numbers in the secondary to their advantage. With Walker and Bosa, the Chargers take a step towards fulfilling that goal.
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New head coach Dennis Allen and offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael have a decision to make at quarterback. They could look to run things back with Jameis Winston, but assuming they do not, then Kenny Pickett could be an ideal fit for the offense we anticipate Carmichael installing. Pickett also fits what teams are looking for from a decision-making and mental standpoint.
Plus, for those worried about Pickett’s hand size, playing eight games in the climate-controlled environment of the Mercedes-Benz Superdome could ease those concerns.
Having addressed the defensive side of the football with their first two picks, the Eagles turn to the offense.
Head coach Nick Sirianni joked at the Combine that a keg was on its way to center Jason Kelce — courtesy of Lower Merion Beverage — to help him make his mind up about returning next season. But with that up in the air, adding Tyler Linderbaum might be a smart move. Linderbaum is a perfect fit for the Eagles, given what he shows as a blocker in zone designs, and is plug-and-play should Kelce retire.
Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has talked about not wanting to roll with a rookie quarterback in 2022, but how about an experienced rookie who has shown grown in the decision-making part of the game? While Desmond Ridder might face questions about accuracy and ball-placement, he has the ability to diagnose coverages on the fly and react in the moment to rotations in the secondary and make the right decision with the football. That will serve him well as he transitions to the NFL.
Furthermore, after the way he tested in Indianapolis, he brings perhaps more athleticism to the table than people were expecting from his film.
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With the news that cornerback J.C. Jackson is likely not going to find a long-term deal with the New England Patriots, cornerback rockets up the board of needs for Bill Belichick and company.
Thankfully for them, this is a strong class at that position.
Trent McDuffie is a fun player to watch on film. When you see him track down and close on crossing routes in man coverage situations, picking and weaving his way through traffic, you see how his game will translate to the NFL.
And when you’ve seen how those concepts have carved up the Patriots in the past, it is easy to connect the dots…
Both Garrett Wilson and his teammate Chris Olave turned in great seasons for the Ohio State Buckeyes, and great performances in Indianapolis. Incoming head coach Josh McDaniels is known for an offensive system that stresses yardage after the catch, and change-of-direction ability from its receivers. At first blush Wilson might seem like an odd running mate alongside Hunter Renfrow, but with how McDaniels constructs the passing game, the two might be an ideal pairing in Las Vegas.
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Might the Arizona Cardinals address the defense for the third-straight year in the first round? Two years ago it was Isaiah Simmons, and last season the Cardinals added Zaven Collins at linebacker. With Chandler Jones facing free agency, adding a pass rusher could be a need. David Ojabo has the explosiveness and athleticism to be a force off the edge, and with some refinement to his pass rushing plan, he could be the perfect replacement for Jones if the veteran pass rusher finds himself a new home during the offseason.
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With Amari Cooper looking like his days in Dallas with Cowboys are over, wide receiver could be a need at this spot for the Cowboys. But Dallas is also in the market for a safety, and they look to plug that need with Daxton Hill from Michigan.
Hill is a scheme-diverse player who can operate in single-high coverages, or in the slot. He plays well in zone coverage and can read and react well to a quarterback’s movements in the pocket. His sideline-to-sideline range on film was something that he confirmed in Indianapolis:
Daxton Hill is a FS prospect in the 2022 draft class. He scored an unofficial 8.91 RAS at the Combine out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 87 out of 788 FS from 1987 to 2022. https://t.co/slJpeVswjm #RAS via @Mathbomb pic.twitter.com/H1eNKW4VO2
— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) March 7, 2022
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Once looked at as potentially a top-ten player in the draft, a shaky Combine performance combined with positional value considerations has seen Kenyon Green’s stock take a bit of a hit over the past week or so.
That might make him an ideal selection for the Buffalo Bills at this point in the draft.
The Bills do not have a ton of needs, but adding at the guard spot could be listed among them. Green’s film is impressive, and adding him to the group in front of Josh Allen gives both the running game and the passing game a potential boost in 2022.
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We kick off a little wide receiver run with Treylon Burks from Arkansas. The Titans could use another weapon in the passing game, and an 11 personnel package with A.J. Brown, Julio Jones and now Burks gives the Titans a ton of ways to attack coverages. Burks might be at his best working downfield, on vertical routes along the boundary or deep overs and crosses from the slot, and would be a complement to what both Brown and Jones bring to the table for the Tennessee passing game.
Now, some are wondering about Burks after his 40-yard dash time of 4.55 seconds in Indianapolis. But two things. One, remember that he weighed in at 225, and that 40-yard dash time is impressive in that context. Two, watch him accelerate away from the Alabama secondary and ask yourself: What is more important? The speed on the track surface in Indianapolis, or the burst and acceleration away from SEC defenders in pads in a game situation?
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Wide receiver might have been in the mix for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at this spot, but with news that the Buccaneers are going to either sign Chris Godwin to a long-term extension, or use the franchise tage on him to bring him back for another season, they can look to the defensive side of the football.
And they can add in Devonte Wyatt, the other Georgia defensive tackle, who brings this to the table:
Devonte Wyatt not gonna let Jordan Davis steal all the thunder. pic.twitter.com/xi8orb2J0T
— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) March 5, 2022
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Aaron Rodgers is back for another ride, and likely bringing Davante Adams with him.
That means the Green Bay Packers can look to the defensive side of the football with this selection.
In years past it was something of a meme on the Touchdown Wire Matchup Podcast: “Double-team Kenny Clark on the inside and you are good up front against the Packers.” Now Green Bay can slot DeMarvin Leal along the defensive line with Clark, and use Leal’s positional flexibility to create problems for opposing offensive lines. Leal has aligned anywhere from a 3-technique to the EDGE, and perhaps on the inside across from Clark he will find some one-on-one opportunities to get after the passer.
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Another player generating some buzz coming out of the Senior Bowl is Zion Johnson, the Boston College offensive lineman. Johnson saw time at both tackle and guard while playing in Chestnut Hill, and even saw action at center during Senior Bowl practices. For the Miami Dolphins, who need to shore up their offensive line, Johnson could be an immediate contributor at guard. He also projects best to a zone run scheme, something we can anticipate being a huge part of Miami’s playbook next season under incoming head coach Mike McDaniel.
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The Kansas City Chiefs enter the offseason with some questions regarding the final level of their defense. Having placed the franchise tag on Orlando Bloom Jr., it looks like Tyrann Mathieu is set to hit free agency, as is Daniel Sorensen. There is likely a chance that the organization will need to replace two players at the back of their secondary.
Jaquan Brisker is a versatile safety who can be used by defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo in a number of different roles. During his time at Penn State, Brisker saw action as a traditional free safety, but also was used in some sub packages on the second level and even saw time in the slot. Depending on how the Chiefs handle Mathieu and Sorensen in free agency, Brisker might be an ideal candidate for their defense in 2022.
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Last offseason the Kansas City Chiefs, after seeing their quarterback under siege in the pocket during most of Super Bowl LV, revamped their entire offensive line. The Cincinnati Bengals do not need to redo their entire group up front, but making sure they can protect Joe Burrow is a huge priority. Trevor Penning plays with a nasty streak — something he talked about in Indianapolis and that was on display throughout Senior Bowl practices — and can handle both zone and gap/power blocking designs in the run game.
Making sure the Bengals have their best five options in front of Burrow for Week 1 next season is an offseason priority, and this is a step towards achieving that goal.
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There is a lot of buzz in recent days about the Detroit Lions going with Malik Willis with the second-overall selection. If, however, they decide to punt on quarterback for this cycle and address other positions, then adding a receiver at 32 to pair with Amon-Ra St. Brown is a smart move.
Chris Olave might not be here when the Lions are back on the clock, given what he did on film and in Indianapolis. But if he is, it is a true “run to the podium” situation for the Lions. He is a smooth route-runner that gives you almost the full route tree on Day One.